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SSD pricing expected to drop a further 10 - 15 per cent this year

by Mark Tyson on 14 October 2020, 11:11

Tags: WD (NYSE:WDC), Crucial Technology (NASDAQ:MU), SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK), Samsung (005935.KS)

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Downward pricing pressure on NAND flash is coming from various angles as we enter the final furlongs of 2020. According to a new report published by the Storage Newsletter, citing TrendForce data, there is an oversupply of NAND flash, which naturally exerts a downward pressure on pricing. Two main factors are behind the downward pressure; Huawei not being able to buy foreign NAND due to US sanctions, and other clients have already stocked up on NAND so have high inventory levels.

Of course most HEXUS readers will be interested in NAND pricing trends in the hope that price declines filter through to SSD storage. And when we move onto the topic of SSDs, we have some good news: there is further downward pricing pressure due to weakening demand from server manufactures, claim the research reports.

At the moment I still have one mechanical hard drive in my PC systems, a 1TB data drive in my laptop (which boots from a smaller M.2 SSD). I have been seeing appealing SSD pricing recently for 2.5-inch SATA 1TB drives here in the UK, with some big name brands coming in at under £70 - a figure pleasingly nearer to £50 than £100. However, taking the TrendForce data on face value it would be wise to wait through Q4 2020, and even into Q1 2021 for some significant reductions in NAND/SSD pricing.

The market data with regard to NAND Flash suggests that pricing will trend down by 10 per cent in Q4, with a 10-15 per cent price drop in SSDs in the same timescale. In Q1 2021, NAND flash is expected to fall further, by as much as 10 to 15 per cent, so we might expect a similar follow-through for SSDs. Thus, after some rough calculations, I see that that £70 1TB drive could come tantalisingly close to £50, perhaps even to reaching the milestone £49.99 price point. Then I might start pondering the option of a 2TB SSD as my last HDD replacement…

TrendForce also shares some DRAM pricing trend data. In brief, it reckons we will see declines in memory pricing too but the dips will be shallower, less significant.



HEXUS Forums :: 11 Comments

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rather use hdd than anything from sandisk lol
I know.
I like.
I need to snag up a 1 TB nvme at some time. :)
I regulary back up stuff from my PC to a couple of WD external drives and memory sticks for extra safety. Irrelevent stuff like films , collected proggies etc also get moved over. Main c: drive is a Samsung 250GB Nvme acommpanied by a Samsung 860 Pro 500GB SSD split into 3 partitions. I was considering swopping out the SSD for another Nvme drive but apparently that kills off my Pcie options on my MSI B450 Pro Carbon by adding a second. If the prices fall enough I would consider ramping up to a 1TB SDD and fit the 500GB into a laptop. ONly thing that always plays on my mind is that ( so I've read ) an SDD can just die with no warning as where a mechanical one normally gives indication of pending doom , hence I multi-back-up.
Wouldn't say no to cheaper prices on ssd's, especially nvme ones… at current costs my storage (primarily ssd based) is making up nearly a quarter of the cost of what I'm thinking of building when I upgrade, which is just daft imo…
Will be looking for 1TB SSD's for xmas on BF and maybe 32GB (or two sets, dang stuff is so cheap). I can't believe you can get 32GB 2x16 for less than 1/2 my 16GB that is 4x4 from just ~2yrs ago and it is faster stuff on top. I think this is my memory year, even if just to grab 32GB for my next HTPC upgrade and let it sit (at these prices…why not?). I was planning one or two for xmas anyway, and another for Q1-Q2 as more stuff comes out (waiting on all the cpus really). But since I know they'll all be DDR4 for me for a while, why not grab 4x16GB for xmas? I want 32GB in the main TV pc anyway as I plan to do stuff that would heat up the other rooms with PC's and maybe migrate my gaming much more there.

Either way, last xmas was a dud, but this xmas is shaping up to be a great CHRISTMAS, complements of AMD/NVDA/MU stocks mostly…ROFL. They bought chips for decades. Intel buying next xmas gifts probably…ROFL. Start buying STOCKS people, but only after MUCH homework ;) Stick to what you know, study the competition, buy the best growth/balance sheets. Intel now (after Q probably best, Q3 not the best, Q4 better Q1 great), and at some point as DDR4 spins down 50% and DDR5 takes that other 50% both will be really expensive again (like the price I last paid for 16GB again) so MU should look really good at some point if they head back to 14B income. The DDR5 PC releases will kind of be like a microsoft release of office/windows/server/exhange. It's their cycle I mean and you should see some 3dxpoint crap in the next year or two also from MU. They broke off, and products will be coming soon on that front too. Again, good entry for MU at some point probably in the next year (1-2Q? low point, election crap etc, heading back up over Q3-4 to 14B. Note that 14B number came the same year I was screwed on memory…LOL. So you are looking for numbers heading to 14B. Check the Q's and you can see when stock price followed income. Do it again and again on all of them when you can.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MU/micron-technology/net-income
See that Q3/Q4 2018 net income. Check a stock chart and look at income vs. price and you'll have a good idea of where they should go next time. That is really simplifying things but you get the idea. People bail once the income growth stopped (revenue of course also tanks) and even before if you're monitoring semi sites (translate much? :)). Income was down to 1/2b/Q, now back to ~1B. I'm guessing you want it before they hit 2B Q's and the best price might have already happened early this year. In a perfect world Intel pops at Q1 and I roll into MU from there with that money. Just examples people. I wouldn't touch AMD/NV at these levels. The math just doesn't add up anymore despite owning them both recently (well I missed a lot of NV, ROFL, stings badly).

You don't have to be terribly good at math to get stock info. I haven't missed on a tech stock in over a decade, though I've ran early MANY times (cough, NVDA…and even AMD really by a lot). I don't like vegas odds and usually am buying for a cycle or 12-18mo etc. Day traders usually get killed, you'll have much better luck alone trading for cycles, product launches etc. Just some thoughts on how to pay for your xmas toys yearly. Hope you all make money as that should cut down on the price whiners :) I haven't paid for my cpu/gpu in a decade, but the people who make them DID. Make your money work for you. The homework takes time, but it's far better than working OT or for someone else. Here, you actually get what you put in over time. Once you pass a few 100K your day job starts looking worse yearly. At 2mil+ if you're still working your day job, I hope you make a TON from it or WTH? You can make 70-100k on 2mil without much homework at all (4-5 dividend stocks etc). With real homework (40hrs a week!) you can kill those results with real investing with very little risk.

I leave a lot on the table at times, but I don't leave with less than I came with. I missed about 75% of NV but still LMAO. I missed probably 1/2 AMD but again, LMAO, maybe with a little tear at the end of each laugh…ROFL - Actually owned both more than once in the last few years. There are times when even I can't seem to resist being a week/month trader. Was ready to do that at Intel 43, but after much math realized good for much longer, and going back to 70 soon with $100 maybe Q1 2022. That said if you can't handle risk wait for the Q next week and you'll be happy at some point in 18-24mo (very happy). Last time Intel was $43 they made 10B and had more shares outstanding etc etc. They make 23B now and at least 3 packaging types (fovros, emib, fovros+emib, maybe new tech with navy etc). Anyone thinking they are out just because behind on fabs isn't looking at the whole picture or the long game. They are already holding TSMC chips in hand (big ones), and can combine 4 different slabs even from different fabs (heh, rhyming now). Intel is about a year ahead on stacking/connecting crap and I think that will be worth more than being #1 in nm shortly. Again, 2.5x net income of last time the stock was $43, so the fake news attack last 2Q was dumb, they're not making 10B today and guided for full year still with maybe bad Q3 (no back to school push etc, shutdowns). If they hit 80B next year and >24B net income, fabs, what fabs…LOL. Being able to slap together crap from 4 different fabs (all best for each layer etc) is better than being #1 for 1 layer I think though Intel obviously hopes to regain that too at some point. Setting records while losing fabs for 3yrs and cpu race, while being short 10% for customers (can't make enough chips, dell, hp, lenovo all pissed off), is amazing management. Moving wafers away from crap with low margins (looking at you AMD, wasting wafers on 5-15% margin console crap!) and moving to server/hedt for as much as you can saved their net income! Learn from this AMD. Chase the rich, not the poor especially when short on wafers.

With 15yrs of data on sites like macrotrends, etc, you can do tons of homework comparing all kinds of stats vs. now and make wise decisions. Shares outstanding, net income, debt, assets, stock price at all different points of highs/lows. You are already reading about tech every day, start doing just a little more work on the finance side and you're done. FREE gpus/cpus for life and you'll never stop, as making money on your money is quite fun. Not caring about any cpu/gpu under $1000 is even more fun. I don't buy them yearly or anything (just a waste IMHO but for my use cases that is)…But I can buy them yearly if desired, and that is what is nice about trading and you can do it from a chair, couch, missing legs etc. Covid actually upped our income (more time for homework). My 2c, again hope you all make more money :) Covid, shutdowns etc? Great time to invest, all day for homework right?