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Apple iPad predicted to dominate tablet market for years

by Scott Bicheno on 25 August 2010, 16:42

Tags: Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), iSuppli

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A mountain to climb

We explained earlier that one of the reasons many other OEMs dragged their feet over making tablets this year was that they were waiting to see how the Apple iPad did. The obvious flaw in that strategy is that it surrenders the initiative and a new report from iSuppli suggests it's going to be pretty hard to claw back.

The iPad will account for three quarters of tablet sales this year, but iSuppli reckons that will only fall to 70 percent next year, after all the Android tablets hit the market, and will still be nearly 62 percent in 2012.

 

 

"Although the iPad has been on the market for only a few months, powerful interests throughout the technology business are devoting enormous resources to challenge and topple Apple's domination in this fast-growing marketplace," said Rhoda Alexander, director of monitor research at iSuppli.

"However, if recent history is any lesson, it will take some time for these companies to get their products to market, longer for them to offer necessary software support and infrastructure, and an even lengthier period to begin to rival the overall user experience Apple is able to deliver."

Alexander is referring to the iPhone as the precedent for her prediction, and it did take the rest of the market around three years to come up with smartphones that deserved to be compared to Apple's epoch-defining innovation.

But surely one major difference between now and then is the ready availability of a tried and tested Android, which enables any OEM to furnish their new tablet with not only a trusted OS, but a rapidly maturing app development community and store.

That's not to say that we're betting against Apple maintaining its dominance of the tablet category, but we don't think the present situation is too analogous to 2007, not least because the iPad is not generally considered as revolutionary as the first iPhone was.

 



HEXUS Forums :: 7 Comments

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Not a surprise at all.

Apple will dominate the market that have had tablet devices for years but no one could design the proper OS for it. This is perfect example of Apple being dominant when it comes to SW/HW.

Its like with iPhone 2G, 2 years down the line and other companies were playing catch up role, still.
spoon_
Apple will dominate the market that have had tablet devices for years but no one could design the proper OS for it. This is perfect example of Apple being dominant when it comes to SW/HW.
Hmm, I think I'd argue that - especially the hardware “dominance”. Where Apple's tablet scores big time is that they fitted an OS from a finger-driven device on it, rather than trying to squeeze a “desktop” OS (with some trimmings - like virtual keyboard) onto it. That's the mistake that Microsoft and the Linux folks have been making for years. Some have referred to the iPad as “a big iPod Touch” - which is probably a fair assessment, and no insult given the number of those they've shifted (three in my household for a start!).
spoon_
Its like with iPhone 2G, 2 years down the line and other companies were playing catch up role, still.
Sorry, going to argue that too. Even Apple had to raise their game (2G -> 3GS for example), and most of the folks that I know are now saying that the ‘4 is a retrograde step - both in looks (it’s comparitively ugly) and function (call problems). But that's an argument that'll run and run…

Getting back to the article - my reaction was "like … duh!". Apple got a lot of publicity for the form factor, so they've already sold a lot of units (good enough - that's their reason for being). However, I suspect that their “unassailable position” in the market may very well get challenged when the Android-based tablets come to market. They're likely to be cheaper, and the sheer number of them means that Joe Public/Jane Doe is more likely to find that one which suits him/her.

Meanwhile, I think I'll just soldier on with my plain, old-fashioned netbook! ;)
I'm going to disagree. The industry has responded a lot quicker this time round. Apple owned the competition with the release of the iPhone, it took years for the industry to respond. What with Android 3.0 on the horizon by the end of this year. And the Samsung Galaxy tablet already being teased, Apple in my opinion won't hold this “lead” for much longer.
spoon_
Not a surprise at all.

Apple will dominate the market that have had tablet devices for years but no one could design the proper OS for it. This is perfect example of Apple being dominant when it comes to SW/HW.

Its like with iPhone 2G, 2 years down the line and other companies were playing catch up role, still.

I too am going to disagree with all the comments you have made.

I think this report is fabricated from cotton and wool and holds no real strength.

If the tablet market takes off, which it looks like it will, then the only products Apple will sell is to their fan base. I don't think this fan base will be that large and all the other consumers will buy another brand with another OS.

And your comment about the iPhone 2G is also not soo correct. The iphone may have been technically superior at the time of launch, but it was never the no. 1 selling phone during its life.
HEXUS
A new report from iSuppli says the iPad will hold onto the majority of the market even after 2011.
Read more.

Either these guys are apple or they are apple fanboys. You can tell by the name of the company